Tim Leffel’s Cheapest Destinations

Face It: Prices are Rising for Travelers Everywhere

When you hear something once you can dismiss it. When you hear it twice, it may be real. When you hear something three times from three different people, you’ve got what journalists call “a sure-fire trend.” Here’s a trend that I’m sorry to report is looking more than solid: prices are going up no matter where you travel.

In some places, like much of Latin America, prices for travelers are up maybe 10 or 15 percent overall from three years ago, which is not going to ruin anyone’s vacation. In Europe they’re up 50 percent (if you’re traveling with dollars), which is nothing short of a disaster. In between are many of the countries featured in The World’s Cheapest Destinations, places that used to be “dirt cheap” and are now just “cheaper than the others.” Here’s one reader’s comment about Vietnam:

Post Tet in Hanoi the gas went up to a whooping 14,000 dong a liter (from 11,000d). Higher than the USA I hear. Consequently everything else that relys on transport has gone up in price. Pho is now about 15,000 d per bowl. Just under $1 US.

And another about Argentina:

I´m back in Salta and looking for lodging in Cafayate - it´s just one year later (exact same time of year, mid-February) and even though as you state the dollar is doing well against the AR Peso, inflation is going crazy - the place I stayed at last year which was excellent, and cost 50 pesos per night, is now charging 130 pesos per night. Other mid-range places listed in my 2008 (yes, you ready that correctly) Footprint guidebook are at least 50% more than printed at the current market rate.

Having just been in Panama, I can tell you real estate prices there are going through the roof, as they already have in the coastal cities of Mexico and on Roatan (Honduras) and Ambergris Caye (Belize). Next up, real estate hyper-rises in Nicaragua and Romania, of all places.

Meanwhile, Europeans haven’t noticed much of a sting in Thailand, but Americans have seen their bargains there become 30 percent less of a deal in the past two years as the baht has strengthened.

The point of all this is that we are seeing a worldwide rise in commodity prices that is driving up the cost of fuel, food, and less consumer-visible stuff like gold, lumber, and steel. All those rises have an effect on everything you spend money on, whether you are home or abroad. Europeans have felt it less since their currency is atop the global heap right now, but it is hitting that continent as well: witness the Italian food protests and Hungary’s decoupling from the euro.

So, the lesson is to add 20 percent to the price of anything you read in a travel reference book to be safe, including my books. I will be updating The World’s Cheapest Destinations toward the end of this year, but frankly I am going to wait until the volatility settles and we all know where we stand. That probably means giving the housing/mortgage/banking debacle time to completely unravel and seeing whether we will get a fiscally responsible administration in the White House to undo some of the damage that has been done over the past 7 years. (The good news: any of the three candidates will be far better than what we have now.)

So I apologize. My price guestimates were valid at the time, but now they’re getting whacked. In relative terms, the 21 countries featured in my book are, and will probably continue to be, a better value than the others. Just don’t use my budget guidelines as gospel. Don’t leave home without an extra padding of cash or some sense of job prospects where you are going. The kindness of strangers only goes so far. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…

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